Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 14.390225 17.548408 21.074996 25.281663 30.138653 35.545896 41.995407
2025-04-13 8.822482 12.544325 17.203983 23.365649 31.189330 40.677223 52.926303
2025-04-20 6.628778 10.621353 16.071676 23.836530 34.368005 47.891380 66.268212
2025-04-27 5.269455 9.371376 15.399515 24.530875 37.585002 55.109276 79.867758
2025-05-04 4.351179 8.505710 15.024135 25.434036 40.988395 62.645603 94.219451
2025-05-11 3.577435 7.665984 14.493266 25.943701 43.751834 69.365655 107.749707
2025-05-18 2.857819 6.732984 13.624741 25.754827 45.363028 74.448164 119.170783
2025-05-25 2.196589 5.729885 12.443717 24.859080 45.720800 77.619347 127.911910
2025-06-01 1.754800 5.043482 11.689798 24.543974 46.900087 82.005032 138.565502
2025-06-08 1.326100 4.253893 10.588594 23.447474 46.642065 84.087634 145.781827
2025-06-15 1.145304 3.997368 10.492681 24.154374 49.453781 91.111823 160.835551
2025-06-22 0.884449 3.447110 9.678636 23.381144 49.590973 93.796743 169.201595
2025-06-29 0.771728 3.298242 9.779303 24.545048 53.515717 103.296733 189.459661
2025-07-06 0.517756 2.608213 8.490575 22.717878 51.830450 103.398686 194.782691
2025-07-13 0.422610 2.393216 8.303083 23.180718 54.475906 111.011620 212.722362
2025-07-20 0.352631 2.234172 8.222661 23.859842 57.580122 119.573726 232.601865
2025-07-27 0.300488 2.118731 8.234109 24.743160 61.146641 129.124705 254.534010
2025-08-03 0.246938 1.963020 8.092997 25.241684 63.957180 137.441956 274.683178
2025-08-10 0.189197 1.741545 7.696321 25.056933 65.319785 143.164648 290.564665
2025-08-17 0.133233 1.472278 7.066376 24.180826 65.118325 145.943280 301.378872
2025-08-24 0.098637 1.293292 6.680849 23.872661 66.102116 150.976218 316.349044
2025-08-31 0.065122 1.069400 6.054115 22.800451 65.268962 152.448295 324.953000
2025-09-07 0.053909 1.014621 6.055492 23.491667 68.504544 161.994893 348.562746